Key Indian Stocks to Watch This Monday, March 4, 2026

Indian equity markets face a pivotal Monday, March 4, 2026, as geopolitical tensions and domestic corporate developments are set to drive volatility across the NSE and BSE. The Nifty 50 and Sensex are expected to open with a cautious bias, heavily influenced by global events and specific stock-related news. Investors will be keenly watching Fino Payments Bank following the arrest of its MD & CEO, Adani Green Energy amid recent price dips, Tata Steel as it navigates a shifting steel demand landscape, Mahanagar Gas after its dividend announcement and leadership change, and Laurus Labs following strong Q3 FY26 results.

The Catalyst

The arrest of Fino Payments Bank's MD & CEO, Rishi Gupta, on February 27, 2026, by the Directorate General of GST Intelligence (DGGI) in connection with an alleged ₹13,000 crore online gaming syndicate and GST evasion probe, has cast a shadow over the fintech sector. While the bank clarifies that the investigation pertains to business partners and not its internal GST compliance, the news led to a significant 7.5% drop in Fino's share price on February 27, 2026, closing at ₹192.45 on the BSE. The company has scheduled an investor-analyst call on March 2, 2026, to provide clarifications, indicating a proactive approach to address stakeholder concerns.

Globally, persistent volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly involving the US, Israel, and Iran, are expected to keep Indian markets on a sideways-to-cautious trajectory. Higher crude oil prices, a direct consequence of geopolitical tensions, could impact India, which imports nearly 85% of its crude requirements, potentially leading to increased inflation expectations and a wider current account deficit. Domestically, macroeconomic events such as February auto sales data (released March 1-2) and upcoming inflation numbers for March 2026 will further shape market sentiment. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its February 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, maintained the repo rate at 5.25%, signaling a focus on liquidity management and policy transmission amid stable inflation and strong economic growth.

Financial Forensics

Fino Payments Bank (NSE: FINOPB, BSE: 542792): The immediate focus remains on the outcome of the GST investigation. The bank’s ability to differentiate its operations from alleged partner misconduct is crucial. The stock plummeted after the CEO's arrest, closing at ₹192.45 on the BSE on February 27, 2026. An investor call on March 2, 2026, aims to clarify the situation, but operational risks from partner reliance are highlighted. The Finance Minister has also stated she will look into the allegations of overreach by GST authorities.

Adani Green Energy Ltd (NSE: ADANIGREEN, BSE: 541450): The stock experienced a -1.93% decrease on March 1, 2026, trading at ₹947.35. With a high PE ratio of 84.13 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.51, investors are closely monitoring its performance. Technically, Adani Green faces immediate resistance near ₹974.11, ₹982.28, and ₹991.06, while support levels are around ₹957.16, ₹948.38, and ₹940.21. The company's long-term potential is linked to its accelerated project execution and capacity additions towards India's 50GW renewable target.

Tata Steel Ltd (NSE: TATASTEEL, BSE: 500470): Analysts project a varied outlook for Tata Steel. Price targets for March 2026 range from an average of ₹225 to an estimated ₹195. Improved production efficiency and raw material cost control are expected to strengthen profit margins. The company is anticipated to benefit from strong steel demand in infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing sectors due to government spending. Immediate support for Tata Steel's share price is at ₹206.40, with resistance at ₹217.35.

Mahanagar Gas Ltd (NSE: MGL, BSE: 539957): Mahanagar Gas recently announced an interim dividend of ₹12.00 per share (120% on face value of ₹10) for FY 2025-26, with the record date set as February 13, 2026. This follows a Q3 FY26 where revenue increased by 11.6% year-on-year to ₹2,266 crore, although net profit declined by 9.4% to ₹202 crore. The company also underwent a leadership transition, with a new Chairman appointed effective March 1, 2026.

Laurus Labs Ltd (NSE: LAURUSLABS, BSE: 540222): Laurus Labs reported robust Q3 FY26 results, with net profit surging 172.65% year-on-year to ₹251.66 crore and revenue increasing by 25.67% to ₹1,778.29 crore. This strong performance was primarily driven by its generics business, which saw a 37% year-on-year increase in revenue to ₹1,327 crore. EBITDA margins improved significantly to 27.3%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. The company continues to invest in CDMO and new technologies like cell and gene therapies, though meaningful revenues from ADCs are not expected for the next two years.

Comparative Snapshot: Key Financial Metrics

Company	Latest Stock Price (Mar 1, 2026)	Q3 FY26 Revenue (YoY Growth)	Q3 FY26 Net Profit (YoY Growth)	Key Recent Event
Fino Payments Bank	₹192.45 (Feb 27, 2026)	N/A	N/A	CEO arrested in GST probe
Adani Green Energy	₹947.35	N/A	N/A	-1.93% dip on Mar 1, 2026
Tata Steel	₹212.33 (Feb 27, 2026)	N/A	N/A	Price target for March 2026: ₹195-₹233
Mahanagar Gas	N/A	₹2,266 Cr (11.6% Up)	₹202 Cr (9.4% Down)	Interim dividend of ₹12/share
Laurus Labs	₹1,001.90 (Jan 28, 2026)	₹1,778 Cr (25.67% Up)	₹251.66 Cr (172.65% Up)	Strong Q3FY26 results

Note: Stock prices and financial figures are based on the latest available data as of the respective dates mentioned in the sources.

Market Impact

The broader Indian market is anticipated to remain cautious. The Nifty 50 recently declined 1.54% to close at 25,178.65, while the BSE Sensex fell 1.84% to settle at 81,287. Geopolitical risks and FII outflows could lead to a gap-down opening, with Nifty facing immediate support at 25,000 and resistance at 25,350 and 25,600. Metals, Healthcare, and Pharma sectors showed relative resilience, advancing around 2-2.2%, while Realty and IT were the worst performers. The RBI's decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25% is expected to maintain stability, but the focus will shift to liquidity management.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Fino Payments Bank: High uncertainty due to the CEO's arrest and ongoing GST probe. Investors should monitor the company's communication and the investigation's progress closely. This is a high-risk, high-reward situation.
• Adani Green Energy: While long-term renewable energy prospects are strong, the stock's recent dip and high valuation metrics warrant caution. Watch for technical support levels and broader market sentiment towards the Adani group.
• Tata Steel: Positive outlook on improved production efficiency and strong domestic steel demand. Consider its performance against support and resistance levels. Its inclusion in the "Metals" sector, which has shown resilience, is a positive sign.
• Mahanagar Gas: The interim dividend is a positive for shareholders, indicating strong cash generation. However, Q3 profit decline and leadership transition require careful observation of future performance and strategy under the new Chairman.
• Laurus Labs: Strong Q3 FY26 results driven by generics and improved margins are encouraging. Its investments in CDMO and new technologies offer long-term growth potential, despite short-term lumpiness in CDMO revenue.

FinScann Verdict

This Monday, March 4, 2026, the Indian market will navigate a complex interplay of company-specific news and broader macro factors. While strong Q3 performances from companies like Laurus Labs present growth opportunities, the unforeseen regulatory challenges faced by Fino Payments Bank highlight inherent risks in the fast-evolving fintech space. Investors should adopt a cautious yet agile approach, focusing on fundamentally strong companies with clear growth catalysts while closely monitoring geopolitical developments and their impact on commodity prices and FII flows.

Q: Why is Fino Payments Bank's stock under pressure? A: Fino Payments Bank's stock is under pressure due to the recent arrest of its MD & CEO, Rishi Gupta, in connection with an alleged ₹13,000 crore GST evasion case linked to an online gaming syndicate. This incident has raised concerns about operational and regulatory risks, even though the bank states the investigation involves business partners and not its internal GST compliance.

Q: What is the outlook for Tata Steel in March 2026? A: Tata Steel's share price prediction for March 2026 suggests an average price around ₹225, with potential to reach ₹259. This positive outlook is driven by expectations of improved production efficiency, better raw material cost control, and sustained demand from India's infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing sectors.

Q: Has the RBI changed interest rates recently? A: No, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its key repo rate unchanged at 5.25% during its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting from February 4 to February 6, 2026. This decision aligns with expectations amidst confidence in a softer inflation outlook and improving growth prospects.

Q: What were Laurus Labs' key financial highlights for Q3 FY26? A: Laurus Labs reported a robust Q3 FY26 with net profit soaring 172.65% year-on-year to ₹251.66 crore and revenue increasing by 25.67% to ₹1,778.29 crore. The generics business was a primary driver, growing 37% year-on-year, and EBITDA margins significantly improved to 27.3%.

Q: How is Adani Green Energy performing as of March 2026? A: Adani Green Energy saw a -1.93% decrease in its share price on March 1, 2026, trading at ₹947.35. The company has a high PE ratio of 84.13 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.51. While it continues to pursue significant renewable energy capacity additions, investors are closely watching its market performance and valuation metrics.

Disclaimer: For information only; not investment advice. Stock market investments carry risks. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing. FinScann assumes no liability for decisions made based on this report.