Shrimp Stocks Rally Up to 20% as India–US Trade Pact Slashes Tariffs, Revives Export Hopes

Indian shrimp exporters witnessed a sharp relief rally on February 3, 2026, as shares of Avanti Feeds, Apex Frozen Foods and other seafood exporters surged up to 20% after India and the United States finalised a long-awaited trade agreement.

The pact, announced jointly by US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, cuts US tariffs on Indian exports to 18% from a punitive 50%, removing a major overhang that had battered the shrimp sector for months.

Markets responded instantly, pricing in revived export competitiveness, margin recovery, and earnings visibility for companies heavily dependent on the US market.

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Why Shrimp Stocks Were Hit Hard Before the Deal

The Indian shrimp industry had been under intense pressure since mid-2025 due to:

• Steep US tariff escalation on Indian seafood

• Loss of pricing competitiveness versus Ecuador and Vietnam

• Rising feed, freight, and working-capital costs

• Weak global demand sentiment

With the US accounting for nearly 48% of India’s shrimp exports, the earlier 50% tariff placed India among the highest-taxed suppliers, severely compressing margins and forcing exporters to curtail volumes.

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What Changed Overnight With the India–US Trade Agreement

The trade pact delivered three immediate positives:

• Tariff cut to 18%, restoring cost parity

• Removal of uncertainty around US market access

• Improved multi-year demand visibility

In return, India agreed to eliminate tariff and non-tariff barriers on select US goods, creating a balanced trade framework welcomed by investors.

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Stock-Wise Performance After the Trade Deal

Avanti Feeds

• Stock surged 20% to an intraday high of ₹960

• Market leader in shrimp feed and processing

• Strong operating leverage to volume revival

• Clean balance sheet supports faster recovery

Apex Frozen Foods

• Shares jumped 19.9% to ₹352.30

• One of the most US-exposed shrimp exporters

• Tariff cut directly boosts EBITDA margins

• Strong candidate for valuation rerating

Coastal Corporation

• Stock gained nearly 5%

• Smaller exporter but benefits from sector-wide sentiment

• Improved pricing environment aids profitability

The rally was broad-based, indicating sector-level re-rating rather than short-term trading activity.

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Why the US Market Is Critical for Indian Shrimp Exporters

The United States remains the single largest destination for Indian shrimp due to:

• Consistent high-volume consumption

• Preference for Indian farmed shrimp

• Long-term buyer relationships

• Stable payment cycles

Any tariff disadvantage directly impacts:

• Export volumes

• Realisations per kilogram

• Inventory cycles

• Cash-flow stability

The tariff rollback therefore reopens the sector’s most important growth channel.

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Shrimp Sector Revenue and Earnings Projection Table

The following projections assume tariff normalisation, gradual volume recovery, and stable input costs.

Company	FY25 Revenue (₹ Cr)	FY26E Revenue (₹ Cr)	FY26E EBITDA Margin	FY26E PAT (₹ Cr)	FY26E PAT Growth
Avanti Feeds	5,250	6,300–6,600	9.5%–10.5%	520–560	25%–30%
Apex Frozen Foods	950	1,150–1,250	11%–12%	95–110	35%–40%
Coastal Corporation	1,100	1,250–1,350	7%–8%	75–85	15%–20%

Key earnings drivers:

• Revival of US export volumes

• Margin expansion from tariff relief

• Higher capacity utilisation

• Reduced discounting pressure

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Valuation Comparison Before and After Tariff Cut

The trade pact significantly improves earnings certainty, justifying valuation re-rating.

Company	Pre-Deal P/E Range	Post-Deal Fair P/E	Re-rating Reason
Avanti Feeds	16x–18x	22x–25x	Market leadership, balance-sheet strength
Apex Frozen Foods	10x–12x	16x–18x	High US exposure, margin recovery
Coastal Corporation	12x–14x	15x–17x	Sector sentiment improvement

Valuations remain below previous cycle peaks, indicating medium-term upside potential if earnings recovery sustains.

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Sector Sentiment Shifts From Survival to Recovery

Throughout 2025, shrimp exporters focused on damage control and diversification. The trade deal flips the narrative toward:

• Recovery-led growth

• Margin normalisation

• Improved earnings visibility

• Stronger balance sheets

Analysts increasingly view this phase as a cyclical bottom for the shrimp sector.

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Key Risks Investors Should Still Track

• Global seafood demand volatility

• Competitive pressure from Latin American exporters

• Disease risks in aquaculture

• Currency fluctuations

• Import-policy changes in destination markets

While the trade deal removes a major structural risk, execution remains critical.

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Bottom Line

The sharp rally in Avanti Feeds, Apex Frozen Foods and other shrimp exporters reflects a fundamental reset, not speculative exuberance.

By cutting tariffs from 50% to 18%, the India–US trade pact restores competitiveness, revives margins, and unlocks earnings visibility for a sector that had been heavily discounted.

The market message is clear:

Indian shrimp exporters are back in contention — and valuations are adjusting fast.

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Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial projections and valuation estimates are indicative and subject to change. Readers should conduct independent research or consult certified financial advisors before making investment decisions.