The Rise of Private Credit and AI Infrastructure: Moelis India’s 2026 Dealmaker’s Playbook

The Indian deal-making landscape is entering a transformative era, according to Manisha Girotra, CEO of Moelis India. In a recent strategic outlook for 2026, Girotra identified a significant shift in how capital is being deployed and raised, betting on two primary pillars: the explosive growth of private credit and a massive investment wave in AI and data center infrastructure.

As traditional bank lending faces more conservative underwriting, private credit is emerging as the "flexible engine" for India's high-stakes M&A and digital transformation.

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1. The Private Credit Surge: A $9 Billion Momentum

The Indian private credit market has officially transitioned from a niche "special situations" tool to a mainstream financing alternative. As of early 2026, the sector is experiencing a massive uptick in volume and sophistication.

• Flexibility Over Format: Girotra notes that private credit allows for bespoke cap table structuring—tailoring deals to individual risk appetites that traditional global banks often cannot match.
• The Yield Advantage: While traditional bank loans offer 8%–10%, private credit is attracting global funds and HNIs with yields ranging from 14% to 22%.
• High-Ticket Deals: The market reached a record $9 billion in the first half of 2025 alone, highlighted by landmark transactions like the $3.4 billion financing for the Shapoorji Pallonji Group.

Funding Source	Typical Yield	Primary Use Case
Traditional Banks	8% - 10%	Working capital, standard term loans.
Private Credit	14% - 22%	M&A, growth capital, bridge to IPO.
NBFCs	10% - 13%	MSME lending, retail credit.

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2. The $30 Billion AI and Data Center Bet

Perhaps the most aggressive bet Moelis India is placing is on the "digital backbone" of the country. Girotra expects a decade-long investment cycle in AI infrastructure and data centers.

• Capacity Explosion: India’s data center capacity is projected to grow fivefold, reaching over 8GW by 2030.
• Capex Intensity: This expansion is estimated to generate a capital expenditure of over $30 billion.
• Tier 2 Pivot: 2026 is seeing a geographic shift. As edge computing and AI inferencing require lower latency, investments are moving beyond Mumbai and Chennai into Tier 2 cities, creating a need for localized internet exchanges.

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3. The "Dual-Track" Strategy: Redefining Exits

In the current market, "DPI (Distributed to Paid-In Capital) is the new IRR." Private equity firms are no longer just looking at IPOs; they are increasingly using dual-track strategies.

1. IPO vs. Secondary Sale: Firms prepare for an IPO while simultaneously negotiating a private sale (secondary buyout) to ensure liquidity regardless of market volatility.
2. Continuation Funds: GPs are increasingly moving high-performing assets into continuation vehicles—roughly 20% of all PE sales now involve these structures, allowing managers more time to scale assets before a final exit.

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4. Key Sectors for 2026 Deal Activity

Beyond tech and credit, Girotra identifies several "high-conviction" areas for M&A activity:

• Healthcare: Continued consolidation as hospital chains and pharma companies seek scale.
• Semiconductors & Minerals: Driven by national security interests and the domestic "Make in India" push.
• Cement & Paints: Consolidation in these sectors remains hot as urban infrastructure and housing demand surge.

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FinScann Take: Manisha Girotra’s outlook suggests that India is no longer just a "minority investment" destination. We are seeing a move toward control transactions and highly sophisticated debt structures. The convergence of private credit and AI infrastructure means that the "picks and shovels" of the digital economy are being funded by private capital rather than public markets. For investors, the real opportunity in 2026 lies in the digital real estate—the land, power, and chips that make AI possible.