"Tariff Seesaw" Rattles US Markets, India Navigates F&O Expiry Volatility Today, February 24, 2026

Breaking: "Tariff Seesaw" Rattles US Markets, India Navigates F&O Expiry Volatility Today, February 24, 2026

Global financial markets are bracing for heightened volatility as the "Tariff Seesaw" in the United States continues to create uncertainty, profoundly impacting investor sentiment worldwide. While Wall Street experienced a sharp downturn, Indian markets demonstrated resilience, closing in the green on Monday, February 23, 2026. However, with the Nifty monthly Futures & Options (F&O) expiry looming today, February 24, 2026, and a slew of critical global economic updates emerging post-market, Indian investors are navigating a complex landscape.

The Catalyst

The past week saw a dramatic twist in global trade policy initiated by the United States. On Friday, the US Supreme Court struck down President Trump's previous "reciprocal tariffs," declaring them unlawful. This ruling, which stated that tariffs are a form of taxation reserved for Congress, was a significant setback to the administration's economic agenda.

However, the relief was short-lived. In a swift response over the weekend, President Trump signed a new executive order. This order, invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, initially imposed a 10% global tariff on all trading partners, effective February 24, 2026. Within hours, he escalated this to a blanket 15% global tariff, the maximum allowed under this temporary provision, which is valid for 150 days unless extended by Congress. This move has triggered widespread apprehension regarding a potential "Trade War 2.0" and its implications for international trade and supply chains.

Financial Forensics

US Markets: Tumbling on Tariff Uncertainty

Wall Street closed sharply lower on Monday, February 23, 2026, as the fresh executive move on tariffs overshadowed any initial relief from the Supreme Court ruling. The uncertainty surrounding a prolonged trade war rattled investors, leading to a broad sell-off.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 821.91 points, a decrease of almost 1.7%, to close at 48,804.06. This marked its worst performance since January 20.
• The S&P 500 fell by 1.04%, settling at 6,837.75.
• The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.13%, ending the day at 22,627.27.

Multinational corporations and financial behemoths bore the brunt of the selling pressure. Companies like IBM, along with financial giants such as American Express and JPMorgan, experienced heavy losses. In contrast, Nvidia held firm ahead of its crucial earnings report, indicating strong anticipation for its performance in the AI sector. Eli Lilly also surged, benefiting from a competitor, Novo Nordisk, struggling with trial data.

Indian Markets: Demonstrating Resilience

Despite the global headwinds, Indian markets displayed strong resilience, closing in positive territory on Monday, February 23, 2026. This unexpected buoyancy was partly attributed to the initial optimism following the US Supreme Court's striking down of the previous tariffs, before the new global tariffs were fully digested.

• The Sensex closed at 83,294.66, gaining 479.95 points or 0.58%.
• The Nifty 50 ended at 25,713.00, rising by 141.75 points or 0.55%.

PSU Banks and the Healthcare sector led the gains, reflecting strong domestic-focused buying interest. Conversely, sectors like IT and Metals faced some selling pressure, likely due to concerns about global trade and the potential impact on export-oriented businesses.

Market Impact

The aftermath of yesterday's US close has introduced several critical factors that will dictate market sentiment in India today, Tuesday, February 24, 2026.

• Trump’s Social Media Signal: Post-market, President Trump further intensified trade war fears by clarifying on social media that he believes he does not need Congressional approval to extend the 15% tariff beyond its initial 150-day window. This assertion, despite legal provisions requiring Congressional approval for extensions, heightens concerns about a prolonged "Trade War 2.0" and its potential for sustained global economic disruption.
• Nvidia Earnings Watch: All eyes are on Nvidia's earnings, which are confirmed for Wednesday, February 25, 2026, after market close. As a bellwether for the broader AI trade and the technology sector, Nvidia's results will be the biggest catalyst for global tech stocks this week. Any surprises, positive or negative, could trigger significant movements across related sectors.
• Fed Commentary: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated on Monday that strong job growth in January might lead the Fed to skip a rate cut at its upcoming March meeting. Waller described the decision as "close to a coin flip," keeping the Fed's short-term rate around 3.50%-3.75%. This stance implies continued higher borrowing costs for longer, which could temper equity market enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Treasury yields dipped as investors sought safety amidst the tariff uncertainty, pushing bond prices up.
• Crude Oil & Gold Dynamics: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the US and Iran, continue to influence commodity prices. Brent crude oil futures were trading around $71-$72 per barrel on February 23-24, 2026, slightly above the $70 mark it dipped to earlier. Analysts expect Brent to trade around $72.51 USD/BBL by the end of Q1 2026. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, has maintained its strong position, holding steady near $5,150-$5,200 per ounce. On the MCX, Gold Futures (Feb 2026) were trading near ₹1,59,420 per 10g, indicating sustained safe-haven demand amidst global uncertainties.

Today's Expectation: Indian Stock Market (Feb 24)

The Indian market today, February 24, 2026 (IST), is expected to grapple with a dual impact: the lingering effects of the cautious global setup stemming from US tariff decisions and the heightened volatility associated with F&O Expiry. Today marks the Nifty monthly expiry, which has been shifted due to holidays, implying sharp moves, especially near 2:30 PM IST.

Factor	Outlook	Key Levels
Sentiment	Cautious to Range-bound	Nifty needs to hold 25,550 to stay bullish.
Nifty 50	Resistance: 25,850 – 25,900	Support: 25,550 – 25,600
Bank Nifty	Resistance: 61,500 – 61,600	Support: 60,900 – 61,000
Key Trigger	F&O Expiry	Today is the Nifty monthly expiry (shifted due to holidays). Expect sharp moves near 2:30 PM.

FinScann Pro Tip: Watch the IT sector closely today. With US tech giants facing selling pressure last night due to tariff uncertainty and broader AI jitters, Indian IT stocks might see an opening dip. However, the new 15% global tariff rate, which is lower than the previously feared "reciprocal tariffs" of up to 50% on some Indian goods, might offer a "buy on dips" opportunity for Indian exporters, especially IT service providers who benefit from a relatively stable trade environment.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Volatility Ahead: Expect significant intraday swings in the Indian markets today, primarily driven by the Nifty monthly F&O expiry and cautious global cues.
• Tariff Landscape: While US markets reacted negatively to the new 15% global tariff, the revised framework for India (from a previous higher rate of up to 50% on some goods) might be seen as less punitive for Indian exporters in the medium term, potentially creating selective buying opportunities.
• Tech Sector in Focus: Nvidia's upcoming earnings will be a major event. Indian IT stocks may initially dip, but a nuanced understanding of tariff impacts could present entry points.
• Fed's Stance: The hawkish commentary from the Fed suggests interest rates may remain elevated, impacting borrowing costs and potentially influencing FII flows.
• Safe Havens: Gold and crude oil continue to find support from geopolitical tensions, offering potential diversification for portfolios.

FinScann Verdict

The global financial narrative is currently dominated by trade policy and central bank rhetoric. While US markets grapple with the "Tariff Seesaw," India's domestic strength has shown resilience. However, investors must remain vigilant through today's F&O expiry and closely monitor global developments, particularly around US trade actions and major tech earnings, to protect and grow their portfolios. FinScann advises a highly selective, data-driven approach, focusing on fundamentally strong companies and strategic hedging against potential volatility.

Disclaimer: For information only; not investment advice. Stock market investments carry risks. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing. FinScann assumes no liability for decisions made based on this report.