India Market Outlook Today – Nifty, Sensex Brace for Q3 FY26 GDP & Global Tech Headwinds (February 27, 2026)

The Indian markets are poised for a day of significant volatility on Friday, February 27, 2026, as investors grapple with crucial domestic Q3 FY26 GDP data and the ripple effects of a global tech sector downturn. While yesterday saw a "tug-of-war" ending in a flatline for benchmark indices, GIFT Nifty is signaling a likely gap-down opening, reflecting overnight global shifts.

The Catalyst

Today's trading session for the Nifty 50 and Sensex will be heavily influenced by a confluence of major events both domestically and internationally. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is set to release India's Q3 FY26 GDP data alongside a new base year (2022-23), with economists largely anticipating a robust growth rate of 8.1%. This key economic indicator will be closely watched for its implications on the nation's economic health and future policy decisions.

Globally, the tech sector experienced a significant jolt. Despite Nvidia reporting "historic" earnings, its stock surprisingly dropped 5.5% in the US markets, pulling the Nasdaq down 1.18%. This "sell the news" reaction has triggered concerns among investors that the "AI hardware boom" might not be translating fast enough into software profits, impacting other US software giants like Microsoft and Salesforce in after-hours trading.

Adding to the complex global picture, high-stakes US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva concluded with "significant progress," signaling a potential easing of crude oil prices, which offers a small sigh of relief for India's import bill. However, the lingering "Trump SOTU" hangover, with discussions of 125%+ tariffs on certain Indian goods like solar panels, continues to cast a shadow over export-oriented sectors, as seen with Waaree Energies yesterday.

Financial Forensics

Yesterday, February 26, 2026, the Indian markets exhibited a largely range-bound session. The Nifty 50 managed a marginal gain of 0.06%, closing at 25,496.55, while the Sensex saw a slight dip of 0.03%, ending at 82,248.61.

A standout performer was Tejas Networks, which soared between ~12% and 17% following its strategic deal with NEC Corporation to manufacture and supply 5G Massive MIMO radios. This partnership not only strengthens Tejas Networks' position in the global telecom equipment sector but also supports NEC's supply-chain diversification.

In contrast, the US markets saw Nvidia's stock tumble 5.5% despite reporting strong Q4 data center revenue of $62.3 billion, significantly above the consensus. This decline dragged the Nasdaq down 1.18%, reflecting investor apprehension about the sustainability of the AI boom and its translation into broader tech profitability.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is expected to announce India's Q3 FY26 GDP data today, with many economists, including those at SBI Research, projecting a growth rate of approximately 8.1%. This release will also introduce a new base year of 2022-23, replacing the earlier 2011-12 series, which could lead to revisions in historical GDP figures.

The specter of US tariffs remains, with the US Commerce Department imposing a preliminary countervailing duty of 125.87% on solar cells and modules imported from India. This impacted Indian solar stocks, with Waaree Energies initially plunging before clarifying that its diversified sourcing strategy might limit the impact.

Market Impact

FinScann analysis suggests that the Indian market will likely react to the conflicting global and domestic cues. The GIFT Nifty is already signaling a gap-down start of approximately 75-100 points, mirroring the overnight tech sell-off in the US. This indicates a cautious opening for the Nifty 50 and Sensex.

A strong Q3 FY26 GDP number, especially if it meets or exceeds the 8.1% expectation, could provide domestic buying support and partially offset global negatives. Conversely, any disappointment could exacerbate selling pressure. The stability in crude oil prices, following the US-Iran talks, offers some relief from inflation concerns, which is positive for the broader economy.

However, the weakness in global tech, particularly in US software giants, could spill over into Indian IT stocks, influencing the Nifty IT index. The imposed US tariffs on solar panels pose a direct challenge to Indian manufacturers like Waaree Energies, potentially affecting their export revenues, although some companies are mitigating this through diversified sourcing.

For the Nifty 50, key support levels to watch are around 25,350-25,380. A break below this could signal further downside. On the upside, 25,550 (and potentially 25,650-25,660) serves as a critical resistance.

Key Takeaways

• Q3 FY26 GDP Data: The release of Q3 FY26 GDP figures, with expectations around 8.1%, will be a primary market driver. Monitor for actual numbers and revisions due to the new 2022-23 base year.
• Global Tech Headwinds: The "sell the news" reaction to Nvidia's earnings and the subsequent dip in US tech stocks will likely weigh on Indian IT and tech-related counters.
• Crude Oil Stability: Progress in US-Iran nuclear talks has helped stabilize crude oil prices, providing a positive backdrop for India's economy by easing inflationary pressures.
• Tariff Impact: The 125%+ tariffs on Indian solar products by the US remain a concern for export-oriented sectors, though companies like Waaree Energies are adapting.
• Market Volatility: Expect a volatile trading session driven by conflicting global and domestic news.
• Support & Resistance: For Nifty 50, keep an eye on immediate support at 25,350-25,380 and resistance at 25,550-25,650.

FinScann Verdict

Today is a "Big Data" Friday that demands extreme caution and agility from investors. While strong domestic GDP numbers could offer a cushion, the global tech sell-off and tariff uncertainties create a volatile environment. FinScann advises a "wait and watch" approach early in the session, with a focus on companies with strong domestic demand drivers and limited global exposure. Protect your portfolio with strict stop-losses and consider defensive plays amidst the uncertainty.

Q: What is the expected GDP growth rate for India's Q3 FY26? A: Economists widely expect India's Q3 FY26 GDP growth rate to be around 8.1%, according to reports from entities like SBI Research. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is releasing this data today, February 27, 2026, along with a revised base year (2022-23).

Q: How did Nvidia's earnings affect global markets? A: Despite reporting "historic" earnings, Nvidia's stock dropped 5.5%, leading to a 1.18% decline in the Nasdaq. This "sell the news" reaction suggests investor concern that high expectations for the AI boom might not be translating into sufficient software sector profits, impacting other major US tech companies.

Q: What impact do the US-Iran nuclear talks have on crude oil prices for India? A: The "significant progress" reported in the US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva has contributed to a stabilization of crude oil prices. This is a positive development for India, as it helps ease concerns about rising import costs and potential inflationary pressures.

Q: What are the key support and resistance levels for Nifty 50 today? A: For Friday, February 27, 2026, the Nifty 50 has crucial support levels identified around 25,350-25,380. On the upside, immediate resistance is expected near 25,550, with further resistance at 25,650-25,660.

Q: How do the US tariffs on Indian goods affect companies like Waaree Energies? A: The US Commerce Department's preliminary countervailing duty of approximately 126% on Indian solar panels has caused a sharp reaction in related stocks, including Waaree Energies. While this creates headwinds for export-focused Indian solar manufacturers, Waaree Energies has stated that its diversified sourcing strategy for US supplies, relying on cells from countries with lower tariffs, is expected to limit the material impact on its operations.

Disclaimer: For information only; not investment advice. Stock market investments carry risks. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing. FinScann assumes no liability for decisions made based on this report.