ITC Ltd. Stock in Focus: Breaking Analysis for February 2026 Amidst Positive GIFT Nifty & Global Rally

ITC Ltd. Stock in Focus: Breaking Analysis for February 2026 Amidst Positive GIFT Nifty & Global Rally

Indian benchmark indices are poised for a positive opening today, Thursday, February 19, 2026, as GIFT Nifty futures indicate an optimistic start. This comes amidst strong global cues, particularly from South Korea's Kospi index which recently hit a record high, driven by an AI-linked semiconductor rally. ITC Ltd. remains a prominent stock to watch, with recent developments signaling renewed investor interest and strategic price adjustments. Domestic sentiment is further bolstered by sustained FII inflows and a generally resilient economic outlook for India in 2026, despite global uncertainties.

The Catalyst

The bullish sentiment emanating from global markets is a significant catalyst for today's expected positive opening. South Korea's Kospi index has seen a remarkable surge, reaching an all-time high of 5,515.8 points on February 12, 2026, fueled primarily by strong demand for AI-linked semiconductor chips. Companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix witnessed significant gains, underscoring the ongoing technology-driven rally. This global optimism is reflected in the GIFT Nifty, which typically serves as an early indicator for the Indian markets, showing a positive bias for the opening session.

Domestically, ITC Ltd. has captured significant investor attention. The company reportedly implemented price hikes across its cigarette portfolio, with increases reaching up to 41% for premium brands. This strategic move is largely seen as a measure to offset the impact of higher excise duties and the new GST structure on tobacco products, which came into effect on February 1, 2026. Initial reports suggest this could protect margins, with the expected decline in EBIT now projected at around 2%, significantly lower than earlier estimates of 8-15%.

Financial Forensics: ITC Ltd. and Other Key Stocks

ITC Ltd., a stalwart in the FMCG sector, has demonstrated notable trading activity. On February 18, 2026, it was one of the most actively traded stocks by value, exceeding ₹153 crore with over 46 lakh shares exchanged. Despite a modest 1.44% day gain, the stock's performance and substantial institutional interest reveal a nuanced picture. ITC has delivered a cumulative return of 4.41% over the past three consecutive trading sessions, indicating a short-term bullish trend. This momentum is supported by the stock trading above its 5-day and 20-day moving averages. Its market capitalization stands at a substantial ₹4,07,576 crore.

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Beyond ITC, several other Indian stocks are buzzing with activity and are on FinScann's radar:

• BHEL: The Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) engineering major has reportedly secured a power plant project valued between ₹1,200 crore and ₹1,500 crore from Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL), positioning it for potential upside.
• Infosys: The IT giant is strategically driving growth through its AI First Value Framework, aiming to capture an estimated US$300-400 billion incremental AI services opportunity by 2030. This focus on AI adoption could influence sentiment in the IT sector, which has recently underperformed due to AI-led disruption concerns.
• Dilip Buildcon: Shares of Dilip Buildcon were in focus after the company emerged as the L1 bidder for a ₹7.02 billion project from the Gujarat government.
• Coal India: This stock, along with others like Dabur and Maruti Suzuki, is expected to remain active due to corporate announcements and market sentiment.

Comparative Stock Performance (Simulated Data, as of February 19, 2026, 10:00 AM IST)

Company	Current Price (₹)	Day's Change (%)	1-Week Change (%)	Market Cap (₹ Cr)	P/E Ratio (TTM)	ROE (FY25) (%)
ITC Ltd.	332.10	+1.85%	+5.20%	4,15,000	24.5	28.3
BHEL	218.50	+2.10%	+3.80%	75,000	32.1	12.5
Infosys	1,725.30	-1.30%	-2.50%	7,10,000	28.7	29.1
Dabur India	555.70	+0.90%	+1.10%	98,000	48.2	22.3
Tata Steel	206.50	+2.80%	+4.10%	2,50,000	15.3	18.7

Source: FinScann Analysis (Simulated Data based on market trends mentioned in search results)

Market Impact: Nifty 50 and Sensex Outlook

The Indian equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open higher today, continuing their recent positive momentum. On Wednesday, February 18, 2026, the BSE Sensex jumped 283.29 points (or 0.34%) to settle at 83,734.25, while the NSE Nifty gained 93.95 points (or 0.37%) to close at 25,819.35. This marks the third straight session of gains, largely driven by buying in bank, metal, and FMCG shares.

The GIFT Nifty's positive indication, trading near the 25,842.00 level as of early February 19, 2026, signals a potentially higher opening for the Nifty 50. However, resistance for Nifty 50 is seen around the 25,883 - 25,947 levels, with a stronger hurdle at 26,066. Support levels are identified near 25,700 - 25,581. The Nifty Bank index also showed strong bullish momentum, closing higher by 0.62% at 61,550.80 on February 18, 2026, with its RSI trending near 65, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

While FMCG and metal stocks have shown resilience, the IT sector has faced headwinds, largely due to concerns over AI-led disruption and margin pressures. Despite this, the broader market outlook for India remains positive, with projections for real GDP growth ranging from 6.6% to 6.9% in 2026.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Global Cues Matter: The record high in Kospi and positive GIFT Nifty suggest a favorable global backdrop for Indian markets today.
• ITC's Strategic Moves: The recent cigarette price hikes by ITC are a crucial development. While intended to offset tax burdens, investors should monitor their impact on demand and overall revenue growth.
• Sectoral Rotation: Watch for continued strength in FMCG and metal stocks, while carefully evaluating IT sector performance amidst AI disruption concerns.
• Mid and Small Caps: These segments have shown strong performance recently, with the BSE MidCap index ending 2.7% higher and BSE SmallCap index 3.3% higher on February 18, 2026. These areas could present selective opportunities.
• Regulatory Environment: Stay informed on SEBI's new regulations, such as the revised framework for market intermediaries and changes in AIF winding-up rules, which aim to enhance market transparency and investor protection.

Moat Analysis: ITC Ltd.

Moat refers to a company's sustainable competitive advantage that protects its long-term profits and market share from competing firms. For ITC Ltd., its primary moat lies in its extensive distribution network and the brand loyalty commanded by its diversified product portfolio, particularly in the cigarette segment. Despite increasing taxation and health concerns, the stickiness of its core tobacco business provides robust cash flows. Its aggressive expansion into other FMCG categories, hotels, paperboards, and agri-business further diversifies its revenue streams, building a wider economic moat. This diversified presence across critical Indian consumption sectors acts as a strong barrier to entry for new players, ensuring long-term stability and growth.

FinScann Verdict

FinScann anticipates a broadly positive start to the trading day for Indian markets, primarily driven by strong global cues and a resilient domestic economic outlook. While ITC's recent price adjustments in the cigarette segment are a key factor to watch, the company's diversified portfolio offers long-term stability. Investors should maintain a watchful eye on sectoral rotations and be selective in their investments, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and clear growth catalysts in the current market environment.

Q: What is driving the positive sentiment in the Indian stock market today, February 19, 2026? A: The positive sentiment is largely driven by optimistic global cues, including South Korea's Kospi index hitting a record high due to an AI-linked semiconductor rally. Domestically, the positive indication from GIFT Nifty futures, coupled with strength in banking, metal, and FMCG sectors, is contributing to the upbeat mood.

Q: How will ITC Ltd.'s recent cigarette price hikes impact the company? A: ITC Ltd.'s recent price hikes, some as high as 41% for premium brands, are a strategic move to offset the impact of increased excise duties and the new GST structure on tobacco products. Analysts believe this could help protect the company's margins, projecting a much smaller decline in EBIT than previously feared. The long-term impact will depend on consumer demand elasticity.

Q: What are the key resistance and support levels for Nifty 50 today? A: For Nifty 50, immediate resistance levels are identified around 25,883 to 25,947, with a stronger resistance at 26,066. Key support levels to watch are at 25,700 and 25,581.

Q: Are IT stocks a good investment given the current market conditions? A: The IT sector has faced some headwinds recently due to concerns about AI-led disruption and margin pressures. While companies like Infosys are actively pursuing AI strategies, investors should exercise caution and focus on companies demonstrating clear competitive advantages and strong deal pipelines in this evolving landscape.

Disclaimer: For information only; not investment advice. Stock market investments carry risks. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing. FinScann assumes no liability for decisions made based on this report.